Could holding 0.28 BTC could put you in the top 1% wealth bracket someday?
A large portion of Bitcoin’s (BTC) value lies within its limited 21 million coin supply, which means ownership of a small portion could lead to significant wealth — if mass global adoption occurs.
“There is only 0.0027 BTC for the current 7 billion people,” trader, Bitcoin evangelist, and Twitter personality Davincij15 said in a Sept. 22 tweet, noting the worlds total population in relation to Bitcoin’s total supply. Davincij15 is known for his early Bitcoin commentary, which harkens back to the asset’s early days in 2011.
“If you HODL 0.28 BTC, and Bitcoin is the world reserve currency you will be the top 1%. Thus HODLing 1 BTC means you may have 400x more than the average person (worst case).”
The math behind Divincij15’s idea is logically sound, although his line of thought relies heavily on a few factors — mainly Bitcoin’s global adoption. The asset currently holds a market cap of approximately $194 billion. Gold, on the other hand, boasts a $9 trillion market cap. Bitcoin requires significant growth to reach the status of gold, an asset much of the world sees as a time-tested store of value.
The U.S. dollar currently stands as the worlds reserve currency, holding a $1.98 trillion circulating supply, according to U.S. Federal Reserve data, which is somewhat closer the Bitcoin’s market cap. Other factors go into the numbers than the circulating supply, however. The actual appropriate number comparison against U.S. dollars could be significantly higher.
Altcoins present another hiccup in the equation. If people invest in other crypto assets, then money is diverted away from BTC, making it harder for the asset to reach top billing as the world’s go-to option.
Still, Bitcoin has garnered a large amount of attention and growth in 2020, including investment from mainstream giant, MicroStrategy.
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0:00 – 0:25 Intro
0:26 – 2:10 Bitcoin correlation with other top tokens
2:11 – 2:45 The right strategy
2:46 – 3:15 Venture capitalists
3:16 – 3:33 Exchange issued tokens
3:34 – 4:04 Identify opportunities
4:04 – 4:54 Conclusion
There is a very common crypto trading strategy that doesn’t make sense to me. Because I think it’s flawed. The strategy that I’m referring is to is buying bitcoin and then “diversifying” your holdings by also acquiring the other CoinMarketCap top 20 or top 10 tokens. There are 2 issues I see with this strategy.
First, the price movements of many of the top 20 tokens have a positive AND SIGNIFICANT correlation with the price movement of bitcoin. And those correlations get stronger as you move into the top 10 tokens.
Look at this chart I just put up. It shows the correlations in price movement between Bitcoin and a number of other popular tokens over the last 30 days. Most of the top 20 tokens are in there. The numbers in this chart go from 1 to -1. So it’s a standard regression chart. The closer each of those numbers is to 1, the more correlated the price of that token is to the price of bitcoin. It’s also greener. The more green the square, the more correlated that token is to the price of bitcoin. You see a lot of green there don’t you? Litecoin, BCH, Stellar, NEO, Binance coin, they all have a significant, and positive correlation with the price of bitcoin, over the past 30 days.
But I’ve run this regression for 1 year time periods, and for the past 7 day time periods, and you find not an exact but a similar pattern. Lots of the top 20 tokens track to the price of bitcoin. This is why there’s a problem with the trading strategy of buying bitcoin and a basket of the top 20, or top 10 tokens. Basically, it’s a redundant strategy. You might as well just buy bitcoin, and bitcoin by the way is more liquid.
This issue with holding a basket of assets that move in the same direction around the same events is a well understood issue in the stock market. People spend a lot of time making sure that their assets are not so strongly linked that a problem in one, affects the other. But cryptocurrency trading is still a nascent industry, and a lot of people are ignoring this correlation problem. But I don’t think you should.
So if you shouldn’t just buy bitcoin and a basket of the top 20 tokens, what should you do? Well a better approach, I think, is to develop an opinion around a particular blockchain sector. So take a position in the blockchain sectors you believe are promising. Now those new sectors could be inter-blockchain communications. Or blockchain video gaming. Or the rise of exchange-issued tokens.
By the way, this is what venture capitalists do. We see some emerging trend, maybe vertical marketplaces, or mobile gaming, or A.I. and we find companies that are doing innovative things in those new sectors. We don’t just say “hey, let’s put our money into the top 10 most valuable unicorns.”
Well, actually now that I think about it, one VC firm did try that strategy. Softbank. It hasn’t worked out well for them.
If you had noticed the emergence of say, exchange-issued tokens a while back, and maybe you even noticed how those exchange-issued tokens have adopted a new economic model that’s different from the classic utility token economic model (those of you familiar with Binance token will understand this), you would have done very well.
Identifying the up and coming PROMISING new sectors in blockchain will also help you identify the best opportunities when those opportunities are still attractively priced. Because other people have not yet done their homework. This is what VCs call having “insight.” Seeing something new, figuring out EARLY why that is going to be a big deal, and then investing in it. THAT, is a far better strategy than blinding buying a basket of the top tokens.
Read the full transcript: https://wax.io/blog/wax-on-why-holding-coinmarketcaps-top-10-tokens-is-not-a-good-strategy
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